What Will the Future Hold?
The Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center near Boston is home to the longest continuous climate record in the nation, with observations taken every day for the last 134 years.
By Peyton Dauley
In the past few weeks, we have experienced freezing rain and chilly conditions quickly followed by fifty-degree days and sunshine, an abnormality for February weather. While this may just be a strange pattern, we have experienced this phenomenon over the past few years, and now some are wondering whether it might be a sign of something more.
The country has become numb to the term “climate change,” as a result of its constant misuse in American politics. In spite of this, we must reassess whether this topic is purely political, as global changes are already taking place as a result of warmer climates all across the globe. They range from raging wildfires in California, intense hurricanes in Florida, to severe flooding throughout the world. While these changes may seem far in distance and irrelevant to local life, scientists can measure exactly how close to home global warming has already started to hit.
In the past few weeks, we have experienced freezing rain and chilly conditions quickly followed by fifty-degree days and sunshine, an abnormality for February weather. While this may just be a strange pattern, we have experienced this phenomenon over the past few years, and now some are wondering whether it might be a sign of something more.
The country has become numb to the term “climate change,” as a result of its constant misuse in American politics. In spite of this, we must reassess whether this topic is purely political, as global changes are already taking place as a result of warmer climates all across the globe. They range from raging wildfires in California, intense hurricanes in Florida, to severe flooding throughout the world. While these changes may seem far in distance and irrelevant to local life, scientists can measure exactly how close to home global warming has already started to hit.
Some of the presumed, and more immediate, effects of climate change include irregular weather and an increase in storms. An 2015 article by University of Massachusetts at Lowell Associate Professor Juliette Rooney-Varga, published by the Boston Globe, explains how the Northeast will be particularly affected by this. She argues that as sea-surface temperatures rise off the coast, they will contribute moisture and energy to the formation of storms. This, in turn, could cause New England to get massive amounts of snow or precipitation. Already, it has been documented that reports of intense precipitation in the Northeast have increased more than 70% in the last 60 years.
Contributing to this theory, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated in an autumn 2018 climate report that some states experienced their wettest fall on record (Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia), while fifteen others had their own top ten wettest autumns since record-keeping began. Overall, the United States faced its second wettest fall on record with an average precipitation total 9.61 inches, just short of 1985’s average 9.72 inches.
However, there is an important difference between the terms “climate” and “weather.” Weather is what’s happening today, while climate is what has occured over a long period of time (usually, consistent patterns that last longer than ten years). This difference marks why we might experience cold weather in a time of global warming, and details why it’s so hard to accumulate enough climate data to determine exactly how quickly climate change is occuring. This contrast provides justification to the scientists who oppose Dr. Rooney-Varga’s theory, as they believe it is simply too soon to tell how global warming is affecting our climate.
Studies like Rooney-Varga’s, alongside monthly and seasonal climate reports from the NOAA, present a potential answer as to what the short-term effects of global warming could be. However, it seems to be the long-term effects that have scientists worried.
Local agencies like the Woods Hole Oceanographic Center, and the Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center in Milton, Massachusetts, dedicate research to studying long-term climate change and the effects of global warming.
The Blue Hill Observatory and Science Center is home to the longest continuous climate record in the nation, with observations taken every day for the last 134 years. Charles Orloff is the executive director of Blue Hill and was able to elaborate on global warming locally.
“We are definitely warming, as is most of the world,” Orloff stated in an email sent to The Falconer. “Climate change is a fact of life on planet Earth. While we can only speculate whether these trends will continue, there is no denying that it is happening.”
Orloff also referenced the potential of this warming as being a part of one of earth’s normal climate cycles, mentioning the “little ice age.” This was a period of colder than average temperatures lasting from the 16th to the 19th century, and is known as a common alternate theory to global warming by supporting the idea that modern climate change is simply the planet’s recovery from said era.
However, Orloff was clear in stating that even if this occurrence is part of the planet’s natural climate cycle, human pollution could still be exaggerating and worsening its effects. “Man might not be the cause of climate change, but if we do nothing about it, and that CO2 pollution that we are throwing into the atmosphere proves to be the major contributor of climate change/global warming, it might be too late to reverse the trend,” he said.
Climatologists commonly reference something known as the “tipping point,” or the time in which global warming side effects will be irreversible after passing a certain, and critical, threshold. Although estimates vary, the United Nations announced that we had an estimated 12 years until their forecasted tipping point, when it would be too late to reverse or delay climate change.
Cape Cod is not exempt from the effects of global warming. In fact, we are a prime target for some of the most drastic impacts of climate change--including rising sea levels, changing ecosystems, and more.
According to the Blue Hill Observatory, the annual temperature since record-keeping began has risen about four degrees. Using this data, climatologists look for trends using certain benchmarks and averages--for example, averages over 10 years, over 30 years, or even over 100 years. This way, climate trends are clear and transparent through the information.
This locally sourced information can give scientists an idea of how global warming is occuring, and what it might cause. On Cape Cod, some of these effects have already been reported, although they are still being analyzed closely under the microscope.
An article published by the Cape Cod Times in 2017 focused on the concern regarding rising sea levels. It reported that, left unchecked, burning fossil fuels could lead to a universal increase in sea levels by 186 feet, probably causing most of Cape Cod to be submerged.
It also stated that under current rates, 11 inches of sea rise are projected to affect the Cape by 2100. This is within many Mashpee student’s lifetimes. If emissions increase, that number could rise to 6 ½ feet.
Another change the Cape may be seeing sooner than expected are shifts in the types of vegetation and animals that thrive in our towns. As a result of changing weather and temperature patterns, it is likely that we will be seeing more invasive species from warmer climates. One of the most infamous of these organisms is the bark-eating beetle, known for its destruction of pitch pine trees. Senior scientist Christopher Neil from the Woods Hole Research Center reported that “this has the potential to transform what the Cape look like over the next couple of decades,” in a statement to the Mashpee Enterprise.
The Center for Coastal Studies, based out of Provincetown, has a local initiative called the Cape Cod Climate Change Collaborative (CCCCC), tasked with uniting organizations across the region to lessen the Cape’s impact on global warming. It contains data for each town, and how they can improve.
In Mashpee, the CCCCC reports that from 2014-2016, our residential gas usage has increased significantly, while commercial gas usage has declined. This could contribute to the emission of fossil fuels into the atmosphere, and by extent to global warming. The data also displays that solar installations in Mashpee have increased significantly from 2005 to 2016, showing that the use of renewable energy is more popular throughout recent years.
As for the fight against global warming, the Cape Cod Climate Change Collaborative recommends action from not just regional organizations, but individuals as well. It lists ways people can work to reduce their carbon footprint, a term used in reference to an individual person’s carbon emissions throughout their lifetime. By doing things as simple as taking public transportation or air-drying clothes, one can lessen their own carbon footprint and help to fight climate change.
While global warming might seem far in time and distance, it hits home a lot closer (and sooner!) than most Cape Codders think. With threats of increasingly irregular weather, rising tides, and invading species from the South, organizations and groups of individuals are working to fight against climate change by reducing their carbon footprint and inspiring others to do the same.